For the freeps to win the normal 1650 scenario they need to do significant damage before turn 10. That includes removing the Witch King from Angmar (see later) and the Dragon Lord from Mirkwood.
As far as the Dragon Lord is concerned, the usual tactic is for the Dwarves to move to Goblin Gate and then turn their attention to Dol Guldor. I'd rather do it the other way around.
You should try to put a sizable force on Dol Guldor on turn two, and a sizable force on Goblin gate turn 3. It's quite likely the Dragon Lord armies will move first turn, but if they don't and they sit and recruit (very unwise) then at most, they will have
600HC
1400HI
600LI
900AR
900MAA at Dol Guldor by the time you land on it.
Given that the loyalty of MT/Keep is likely to be 60 (ish) it gives a defensive strength + army of 30000.
Woodies start with
600LI 600AR at 2711
600HI 600LI at 2711
1200HI 900LI at 2508
Dwarves start with
1200HI at 2212
1500HI 300LI 300AR at 2212
Sinda start with
300LC 300LI 600AR at 2908
900AR at 2413
Northmen start with
300LC 300HI 300LI 300AR at 3109
Noldo start with
300LC, 300AR at 2209
Dragon Lord starts with
600HI 600AR 300MAA at 2715
600HC 600HI 300AR 600MA at 2715
300LC 300HI 300LI 300MAA at 2409
Turn 1
Sinda recruit 500HI at 2413 and move to 2514
Dwarves recruit 500HI into big army at 2212, transfer everything but 100AR into the army with the best commander and move to 2613.
Woodies recruit 400HI at 2711 and transfer all but 100AR into the main army and move to 2613.
North Gondor send 600HC, 600LC from 3116 and move to 2617 (bit strange this, but bear with me).
Sinda recruit 500HI at 2908 and move to 2810
Northmen recruit 400HI at 3109 and move to 2810
Noldo recruit 400HI at 2209 and stay put.
Turn 2
The Dragon Lord will be expecting a large Dwarven force to land on Goblin Gate this turn. Ji Indur may have turned up banking on us doing the usual opening moves.
The Dragon Lord armies will have either
a) Stayed put
b) moved an army to 2915 - Sinda village
c) moved to 2613 - will get decimated by dwarves and woodies
d) moved to 2617 - will meet 1200 NG Cav.
e) really bad news, moved en masse to 2514 and had it revealed (by Murazor for example). Hope this doesn't happen.
It's important that Bain's army (assuming Bain has started at the dwarven capital) is in the same hex as woodies. This means the woodies don't have to risk refusing a challenge from Duran or other high challenge rank characters.
Woodies and Dwarves at 2613 either fight Dragon Lord and move, or just move to 2715.
Sinda at 2514 recruit 500HI and move to 2715.
North Gondor at 2617 either fight Dragon Lord and move, or recruit 300HI and move to 2715.
The combined armies of NG, Woodies, Dwarves and Sinda will be on Dol Guldor turn 2 and can capture on turn 3. You do however, need the 1200 NG cavalry to do this.
Meanwhile,
Northmen and Sinda at 2810, move to 2410.
Noldo recruit 400HI at 2209 and stays put
Dwarves recruit 500HI at 2212, move to 2410
Woodmen recruit 400HI at 2711, move to 2410
Woodies recruit 400HI at 2508, move to 2410
Turn 3
You capture Dol Guldor.
All armies at 2410 moves to 2409
Turn 4
Maximum Dragon Lord army at 2409
300LC 1500HI 300LI 300MAA behind MT/F gets trounced and you capture it.
As it turned out, Northmen going west is probably too much but can be useful if Rhudaur declares early.