From the Mouth of Sauron
Issue: E-5
Date: 01-21-94
Note: all authors retain exclusive rights to their material.
Reprinting is allowed for non-commercial game use only.
Editorial
Hello once again. First off, missed mail. Considering the rather
enormous amount of email I've been getting since the Mouth took off,
it's quite possible that I'll somehow misplace or forget about
something you sent me for publication. If you don't see whatever it
is you sent me in the Mouth that goes out the Friday after, drop me
a line and ask me what the hell I think I'm doing. Since my policy
is to print anything that's even remotely connected to ME-PBM, a
failure to publish what you sent to me means a mistake on my part.
A swift kick in the ass will usually jog my memory. (Note that
articles are usually printed in the order received, if only for my
own convenience).
Two new columns come to light this time around. The first is the
"ME-PBM Wish List". This column asks the question: if you were the
computer god of this game, what would you change? What alterations
would you make in the rules, set-ups, or code? What new things
would you add, or old things eliminate? It doesn't have to be
realistic; nothing in this column will spur GSI to make any changes
to the game. The point here is to tell other players what you think
would make the game better, no matter how drastic the suggestion
might be. I put in a few examples to give you an idea of what I
mean. Commentary is most welcome, as usual.
The second column is called "How I Got Shafted in ME-PBM". This
serves a different function, and one that one day may actually be of
some use. I'm trying to pinpoint the most common mistakes,
misinterpretations, and handicaps that new players operate under.
So stretch your memory back to that misty far-off time when you were
a new player and ask yourself: what about the game was confusing?
What orders got your troops wiped out and your characters killed
because the rules didn't describe them very well? In other words,
if GSI was writing an instruction manual for new players concerning
the game, what do YOU suggest they add to that manual so that other
guys and gals won't make the same mistakes? Here's an opportunity
to vent on the injustices heaped upon you when you first joined
Middle Earth-PBM!
Within the Mouth this time you're going to find a number of
commentaries by Leslie Foreman, the lovely wife of David Foreman.
These commentaries were originally run over several issues of the
Free People Press (David's baby), giving all of us in game 60 the
opportunity to experience Leslie's wit and charm first-hand (and to
envy Dave!). Leslie doesn't play the game, she just has the
misfortune of being saddled with a gamer-husband; but her
observations on gamer antics were something I looked forward to with
each issue of The Press. If anything, the commentaries reminded me
on a regular basis just how silly the game can really be. I hope
you enjoy them as much as I did. And thanks to Leslie and David,
for giving me permission to run the articles in The Mouth.
Finally, any more comments on the Woodmen opening strategy in issues
3 and 4? Any alternatives people would like to submit?
That does it. Until next Friday,
Tom
Artifacts
Believe it or not, no changes this time around.
Encounters
Celgor: I'm told by a reliable source that the i.d. for Celgor is
VAMPI, not CELGO (which stands for VAMPIre Celgor). So, if you want
to transfer artifacts to him, locate him via spell, etc., use VAMPI
as his i.d.
I'm also told that Celgor may be the only vampire in the game.
Whether this is true or not I don't know; I've never personally run
into a vampire to tell you otherwise, although a number of people
claim to have encountered a female vampire (Celgor in drag?). If
anyone has the answer, I'd appreciate hearing it.
Dragons
Lamthanc's combat strength has been confirmed at 45,000. This seems
to confirm my suspicion that dragons are either generic or fall into
a few classes at most (thanks to Tori DeYoung for this one).
Any guesses on what the average dragon challenge rank/health total
is?
Other Corrections and Notes
In newer games, Uvatha's skill ranks have been changed. He used to
be a C60 A10 E10; he's now a C60 A20 E20. I first noticed this in
game 140, but don't know when GSI first made the alteration (my
latest setup previous to this is game 54).
Okay, let's see if I can get this right...the Sinda fleet at 4413
has 6 warships and 3 transports, not 6 warships and 6 transports.
Thanks to Tori DeYoung and others for bringing this mis-correction
to my attention.
Wes Fortin made an interesting observation and is looking for
comments. Essentially, it runs like this:
Two armies are facing off. The commander of the first army
issues personal challenge to the commander of the second army.
The second commander refuses the challenge (the first army
commander has a higher challenge rank than the second army
commander). In the ensuing combat, the first army wins.
Now here's the tricky part: because the second army
commander originally refused a challenge by the winning first
army commander, that second commander is more likely to be
killed after losing the army combat.
So what do you all think? Any evidence out there to confirm or deny
this? Any commentary?
Brian Mason asks the question: What are the combat values of Woses,
Ents, Eagles, Mumakil, Fell Beasts, etc.? I've never bothered to
track this data, so any information you all out there may have would
be most welcome (others are interested in the answers as well).
Jerry Clark wants to know: What is a reasonable agent level for an
assassination attempt and for a kidnap? This question has a
complicated answer, and I'd like to defer it to someone who does
more assassinations than I do. Any takers?
In Your Ear
(Editor's Note: last issue yours truly wrote a piece on using
scorched earth tactics within the game for this column. The point
was to generate some responses and, if lucky, perhaps even an
outraged debate or two. The replies to my article follow:)
From Wes Fortin
I very much agree with you on that issue, Tom. I'd like to expand
on the idea of Scorched Earth some, and state that it is best used
in a "commerce raid" style of attack. That is to say, penetrate the
enemy with about 2500HI and a 40-50 commander (or less if that's all
you've got) and burn his pop centers. Focus on towns or smaller,
try to conserve the troops as long as possible. DstPop is easier
and costs fewer troops than CptrPop so those troops should be good
for 3-5 hits (assuming no opposition by enemy troops). Eventually,
this army will have about 300 troops left, too small for much of
anything. Either disband it, or try to make it back to the rest of
your army to take advantage of the high morale those troops will
have.
If you have 60+ commanders, I would recommend hitting the same
targets with 1000AR armies and using THREAT instead of slash and
burn. Use this in combination with a larger slash and burn force,
and the enemy suddenly has several targets to contend with and must
either absorb the losses, or divert resources to stop your armies.
If you plan it correctly, you can followup commerce raids with a big
strike to hit the Major Towns and Cities.
Commerce Raid attacks are usually productive, and cheap to maintain.
They are especially effective for poor economy nations (like the
Woodmen and any Dark Servant) facing a large economy foe. More
importantly, your enemy will probably be spending more time chasing
commerce raiders to save his economy and production and less time
launching large assaults against you!
Initially, the Free peoples probably won't need Slash and Burn much.
It's great against camps, trains wimpy commanders, and might yield
a high morale army. In addition to affecting the loyalty of all the
target nation's pop centers! But the Freeps usually have enough
military advantage to capture pop centers and force the baddies
divert their few resources to recapturing pop centers - thus leaving
themselves open to further Freep invasion forces. Remember, the
Freeps start with about a 2:1 military advantage and a bigger
economic advantage. The best way to equalize that is to destroy his
economy quickly so the Freeps can't maintain those crushing armies -
and slash and burn is a good tactic for those mid level commanders
to use!
From Keith Petersen
Have you considered that scorched earth also destroys the tax base,
and thus would lower the prices for market? Hence, not only wouldn't
DS get the few turns income, they also could lower the prices
they'll get for their own goods! (ouch!)
From Glen Mayfield
I too am a fan of a scorched earth policy, but under different
circumstances.
For me, a scorched earth policy works best when playing a Free
People. The reason for this is simply economics. Most Free People
can get by reasonably well without adding pop centers to those they
start with. The Dark Servants not only need additional pop centers
but certainly can't afford to lose any of those they start with. As
a result, a suicide run by a FP army with the intent to destroy DS
pop centers well beyond the area they expect to be able to defend
can be very effective. Not only will the loss of the destroyed pop
centers seriously damage the DS in question but may (coupled with
the inevitable tax hike) cost them much needed camps due to loyalty
loss. It can start a vicious cycle which leads to the demise of the
nation. As with all strategies, this is, of course, more easily
written than carried out but I have seen it work to good effect.
For the Dark Servants, I see a scorched earth policy as an extreme
measure in most cases. As you suggest, when used in an effort to
create confusion and terror it can be quite useful (though only when
used selectively IMHO). Softening up other pop centers for
emissaries by destroying exposed pop centers is also an excellent
strategy under the right circumstances. Still , I see these uses of
scorched earth as just a small part of a larger strategy which must
include capturing FP pop centers. If a DS can only expect to hold a
pop center for 1-2 turns then destroying it is the route to take
(but you must ask if that was the best place for that army to be
...sometimes yes, perhaps others not.) If you can expect to hold it
for 3+ turns but not indefinately you also have to ask several
questions:
1) How long can I expect to hold it?
2) Is it productive enough that those turns make it a boon to my
hard pressed economy?
3) Can I expect the FPs to waste time and effort to recapture what
may not be a location of strategic import?
4) If it has fortifications will it stop enemy movement long
enough to prepare a defense?
Depending on how one answers these questions, capturing may be the
best option even if the pop center is likely to be lost some time in
the future.
Naturally the best bet is to take something you have a chance to
hold on to. Admittedly not always possible. When that's the case I
consider scorched earth but not always reaching the same conclusions
as your article suggets. Of course that's what makes PBMs fun. Lot's
of ways to approach the same question without any 'right' answer.
See you in the Misty Mountains (hopefully not as a dragon's dinner!)
From Brian Mason
In my most recent turn I captured rather than destroyed Mt. Gram. I
needed the gold! As you might remember (or could look back and see)
in game 62 I took Cargash from you and then developed a "hedgehog"
defense.
The idea with the "hedgehog" is to capture a fortified population
center deep within enemy territory. Then sit on it and recruit
troops. The enemy will tie down resources guarding against your
moves out of the defense, and raising troops to overcome it. It may
allow you a respite from attacks of a single adversary and give you
time to raise the troops necessary to go back and relieve the
forces.
And Another Topic
This isn't to put an end to the discussion on scorched earth, but to
add to the list of stuff that we can argue over. Remember, any of
you can bring up a topic as well, possibly spurring several
concurrent discussions on different things.
The topic I suggest here is the role of the Neutral. As a long-time
player of neutrals and one who loves these positions more than any
allegiance nation, I've heard a wide variety of comments on
neutrals. These remarks have ranged the gamut, from favorable to
scathingly scatological (these last do not bear repeating in polite
company).
Example: in one of my games, a player said that neutrals added
'excitement' to ME-PBM, and allowed an otherwise defeated side some
hope of making a comeback. Another player in the same game
suggested that I was somehow morally deficient for choosing a
neutral in the first place, and that the only 'fair' thing to do
would be for me to drop so I didnt' 'ruin' the balance of power!
Different viewpoints indeed.
My own view is that neutrals are necessary, else the game
degenerates to a slugfest between two sides whose abilities are
well-known. Without the added unpredictable factor that neutrals
give to the game, the balance of power remains eternally static and
incredibly dull. Worse, the option for playing a game of intrigue
and diplomacy falls to nil, unless one is low enough to engage in
underhanded deals with the enemy in order to gain an advantage.
Of course, many players would just as soon dispense with diplomacy
altogether. I've noticed that in the later games the allegiances
will rarely even part with a few lousy artifacts to gain a neutral's
aid, much less condescend to transferring pop centers or retiring
characters (grumble, grumble). Even worse, many players operate on
the assumption that neutrals should be wooed to their side, then
destroyed in the end-game. The reasoning? Neutrals shouldn't be
'allowed' to win. Frankly (and here's where I'm going to get into
trouble, I know it), I think people who deal with the words 'should'
and 'fair', getting on a high horse to attribute some moral
imperative to a game, are unmitigated twits.
In defense of those who complain about neutrals, I do believe they
hold too much power. If 4 or 5 neutrals declare for a single side,
that side becomes unbeatable assuming competent play. I don't like
this any better than anyone else (it makes the game too short and
too easy), but I can't see a solution other than to either reduce
neutral resources (bad move) or limit the number of neutrals who can
join any single side (max of 3 on one side). This last would take
an Act of Bill, which happens too rarely to hold out any near-term
hope.
Another annoying habit of some neutral players is to stay out of the
war grabbing victory points left and right, then declare for the win
at the end-game. This, however, isn't the fault of the neutral
position per se, but rather of the winning allegiance. If the dolts
had any brains, they would've plastered the insolent neutral swine
with character attacks prior to the end of the game. The fact that
they didn't is their own fault; no neutral can stand against an
allegiance in a character war. My own belief is that any southern
neutral which doesn't join the war by turn 8 (turn 10 latest) should
be destroyed by whichever side holds the advantage (although I've
violated this imperative in several games); as for Dunland and
Rhudaur, the time frame differs considerably based upon the course
of current events.
Of course, the neutrals could police themselves by joining whichever
side is losing (thus evening the score), but how often does this
happen? Many players seem to take great joy in winning the game by
getting all the neutrals on their side, rather than doing so through
skill and acumen. Moreover, a number of players who take neutrals
often choose the 'safer' path, in the hopes that they'll grab a
winning position.
There's much more to be said, but I'm looking for replies. I hope
my blunt criticism excites some of you to respond.
Personals
Game 88
The Free People are now willing to discuss terms for your
unconditional surrender!!!!!
Game 97
Dark Servants, you're doomed by your own foolish hostility. Watch
and tremble....
ME-PBM Wish List
Here are some examples to get the column started.
Within the framework of the game:
- alter the 'change allegiance' order so that only three neutrals
can join any one side. The last two don't have a choice; either
they remain neutral, or they join the opposition.
- add a nation transport order that allows you to transport goods
from several listed locations, rather than one location or all
locations. This would reduce the logistical headache of trying to
get goods to various places while in the midst of raising armies
(e.g., you wouldn't 'steal' the bronze that an army needs to recruit
with).
Changes to the framework of the game:
- eliminate Rhudaur as a player and divide this nation up among the
Witch-King and one other Dark Servant. Move one of the Dark
Servants from Mordor to the Misty Mountains/Rhudaur area to even out
the regional disparities. Mordor is too crowded anyway.
- alter the Dwarven setup by moving Zarak-dum to the Grey Mountains
or Iron Hills. Remove the dwarven village on the Sea of Rhun and
make the village in the Blue Mountains a town.
- Spread Harad out more towards the internal south so that the
position isn't 'pointed' at Southern Gondor. This gives Harad a
more pressing interest in the south, in the activities of the
Corsairs and Easterlings, and leaves him somewhat more vulnerable to
attack by either side. Harad wins too much.
- Reduce the Corsairs by one major town. The Corsairs win too much.
- Move Vamag to the internal south. Vamag's current location sucks.
How I Got Shafted in ME-PBM
A couple of examples to get this column started:
- first game was as the Long Rider. Not knowing anything at all
about the enemy, I assumed that GSI in it's ultimate wisdom wouldn't
give me a navy markedly smaller than that of my opposition. End
result: one sunk navy, 3 dead characters. Solution: the setup
includes a listing for ownership of forces and pop centers. Change
the listing so it reads 'rumors indicate a small/medium/large
army/navy at x location'.
- a new player in a game I'm in saw a dragon at his pop center and
assumed it was an enemy character. He challenged with Bain and died
a horrible death. Since when is Bain so near-sighted he doesn't
know a dragon when he sees one? Solution: list the dragon names in
the rulebook under the glossary.
- in yet another game, a new Northern Gondor player didn't
understand just how vital secondary commanders and guards were. He
lost four of his starting characters to challenges/assassinations in
the first three turns, along with most of his army. He assumed
(rightly, from his point of view) that the Dunedain were powerful
and capable of standing up to most threats. Solution: include a
warning in a player start-up sheet on making these sorts of
assumptions.
- in still another game, another new Northern Gondor player failed
to consolidate his armies in the Ithil Pass (thinking that the enemy
wouldn't outnumber his own forces too much). He got creamed and
Mordor's armies are now marching through Gondor at whim. Solution:
include a warning in a player start-up sheet on making assumptions
about the strength of enemy forces. ME is NOT balanced like many
other PBMs are.
Commentary
by Leslie Foreman
(Editor's Note: this begins the commentary articles written by
Leslie Foreman, as described in the Editorial. Several more follow
this one.)
The purpose of this passage is to say "Hello" (not Hail or Hark) and
to share information concerning two little known conditions, which
grip grown men, and cause otherwise calm, sensitive individuals to
become easily distracted and agitated. The primary candidates are
men who play in GSI Middle Earth - Play By Mail. We will identify
the conditions as A and B. The symptoms and visible effects are as
follows:
CONDITION A:
- an over-anxious need to know "has the mail come"
- an all-consuming need to surpass the speed of light when
going to the mailbox. (I have a rut in my front yard. I can't
imagine if we had a mail-slot in the door. Our mailman would
have no arms and look like that knight from Monty Python's "In
Search of the Holy Grail."
CONDITION B:
- having your phone become so important to your husband that you
feel obligated to serve it dinner.
- speaking to and of people(?) that you have never met, and are
not sure that you want to (Come now, all of MY friends have
names like the Witch King & the Dog Lord).
- hearing your husband talking about sacrificing hundreds of
"heavy infantry" at "Minas Imsikovit" [pronounced "I'm sick of
it" - DRF] when he puts the crickets back outside during the
summer.
These conditions are not terminal, they are also not life-long. They
can and will eventually cease and with them the symptoms will no
longer grip your husband. The conditions have been named Pre-Mail
Syndrome and Post-Mail Syndrome.
In conclusion, as caring spouses of men afflicted with PMS, all we
can do is lend an interested ear when stories of victories and
defeats are shared, be sure to make ALL of our phone calls before
"turn week-end" and to get the h--- out of the way when the mail
comes.
Commentary
by Leslie Foreman
Gentlemen, oh I'm sorry, that's Gentle"creatures", HELLO to all of
you! I hope that this commentary finds you well. I realized some
days ago that I may have some useful advice for some of you in the
light that you all travel so much - always moving from this hex to
that hex. I thought you might be interested in some of my packing
and travel tips.
- Remember to put all of your valuables (i.e. rings, etc.) in a
safe place BEFORE you begin your trip. If a ring, for example,
gets lost or stolen, it is hard to find and it generally takes
a long time.
- When you begin your journey, remember to hide your gold in
several places so it can't be taken all at once. Doesn't the
First Bank of South Gondor issue Traveler's Checks? That is
really a better idea.
- I encourage you to pack some sort of candy or treat to give
away on your trip. It has been reported that dragons will
ignore, or even help, individuals who provide goodies! Dragons
appear to prefer Mr. Goodnoldos, O Sinda and Baby Rhudaurs (a
new and welcome addition to the list).
- Remember to pack some suntan lotion - I can't imagine a "red-
neck" dwarf! Bug spray is also a good idea. (How about a
"red-neck" dwarf with major mosquito bites?)
- With fashion in mind, I recommend wool with chain mail during
the winter and then to change to a cotton broadcloth during the
summer. That will allow your skin to breathe in the hot
weather.
- Never leave without your AAA Guidebook - Annotated Adventurer's
Almanac . This will provide information concerning the best
places to stay, the note-worthy events that occurred in the
area and good tourist's attractions.
When choosing a place to stay, here are some suggestions:
- Look at the name of the establishment. If you want a good
night's sleep, don't chose The One-Eyed Sailor for obvious
reasons, if you get my "drift."
- Try to find an inn where you can bathe. I've seen some of your
pictures and "you look marvelous!" (Yeah, right!) I think you
probably smell ripe, too.
- Find a place near a nice restaurant. Good food may keep the
troops happy and loyal. Who would you follow? Someone with
cold Beefaroni in a can or someone with London Broil on the
grill?
- With aesthetics in mind, I recommend an establishment with that
"homey" feeling and soft muted colors in the room. I
personally prefer that the barrel for the water and the blanket
on the straw be in coordinating fabrics. And always ask
yourself, Did they leave the lantern burning for you?
Finally, a reminder. As your mother told your during your youth,
you always need to take a clean change of chain mail. You never
know when you may be 'durthanged'* and need to be rushed to the
local doctor.
Hope these tips are helpful and that your travels are successful.
* 'Durthanged' verb, to be utterly destroyed. Came into usage in
game 60 after the Eothraim destroyed the capital of the Ice King.
News Flash
By David Foreman
(Editor's Note: Dave wrote this after Harad managed to convince us
that he was in all probability the worst player ever to burden
Middle Earth. Harad was so bad, in fact, that he was
administratively removed from game 60 and all other games he was in
at the time - the only instance I know of where GSI actually yanked
a player out and told him not to come back.)
NEWS FLASH: Harad brain cell located! Mages from South Gondor
have developed a new spell - 'Locate Character Truer' that allows
queries on body parts. We have of late been after some of the parts
of our slain brothers, and needed a spell that was a bit more
specific than the standard 'Locate Character True'. It has to be
cast by four mages in tandem because it has a Difficulty rating of
"Really Super Hard." During Beta testing we needed a medium range
target, and used a known Harad character name. When the vision came
to the caster, the info gleaned was as follows:
Main Body Mass: 2734
Other Parts:
Brain: The Brain was not located, further
attempts will never succeed.
Other: Single Brain Cell @2227-Dol Amroth
Cause of Separation: Desire for companionship
Commentary
by Leslie Foreman
After spending the last 17 months observing ME-PBM games #22 and
#60, I have come to the conclusion that the name 'Play by Mail' is
a misnomer. After listening to conversations and reading The Press
I feel that ME-SOBM (Soap Opera by Mail) would be better suited.
Here are the headlines from the next issue of "Soap Gaming
Digest:"
- Will the Corsairs ever realize just how poorly planned their
attack was?
- Will Tarondor ever recover from the knowledge that he murdered
the mother of his illegitimate love child? (Shelob's daughter)
(That's mine! DRF]
- Do the "Duns" have a fervent wish for a new nickname?
- Is it Elladan or Elrohir that has the birthmark?
- ALIENS ABDUCT RINGLIN, TAKE TO FIERY HOMEWORLD! His personality
is altered and he is returned to WACO (Wander Around Counting
Orcs) the rest of his days as a religious zealot.
- Is Elrond the illegitimate son of Sauron?
- Has Pope Phil ever considered selling New and Pricey Artifacts?
(You know, be a NAPA salesman?)
...and last but not least.....
- Has the Harad had a lobotomy?
The answers to these and other questions may never be known, but it
sure is fun looking for them. Good Gaming, guys!
Commentary
by Leslie Foreman
PREFACE- Don't expect hysterical laughter this issue....
I have been involved with ME-PBM since December, 1991. When Dave
described this "game" to me, it certainly sounded like something
that HE would find fun and interesting. Now truth be known, I have
enjoyed many aspects of the games in which Dave is involved. I have
learned a lot about the game, about people in general and about
Dave. Watching him plan his strategy is an exercise in
thoroughness. I would like to attribute that quality to Mike
(Noldo) Hostetter.
Dave and I have spent a lot of time discussing the group dynamics of
the players of ME-PBM. We have also discussed the dynamics within
a group of characters as well as the expected response from the
enemy.
There is one more relationship which is important in the playing of
ME-PBM, and that is between the player and the non-player(s) in the
home. There are certain rules of etiquette, for lack of a better
term, which need to be considered at all times by all members of the
relationship.
Etiquette for the Non-Player:
- It is important to remember that it takes time to write up
orders. Be sensitive to that fact and allow the player to have
some quiet time to think and to plan.
- It is important to "play dumb" on the phone when talking to one
of the other players. Be friendly. Be cheerful. Be careful -
I accidently mentioned something I wasn't supposed to when
another player called. It wasn't anything major, but I learned
my lesson.
- If you have a answering machine and you happen to be at home
during the day, I recommend that you only answer the phone 20%
of the time. It is likely to be someone who "just wants to
leave a message."
- If you have a fax machine and you happen to be at home during
the day, I recommend that you never answer the phone. It is
probably someone who "justs wants to send a fax."
- DO NOT LAUGH at any misfortune which befalls your player's
characters, army or team. Even though you find it funny that
he in concerned about a make-believe dragon killing his make-
believe commander and therefore his make-believe army will be
disbanded, it is not funny to him.
Etiquette for the Player:
- It is important to remember that it takes time to be an active
member of the family. Be sensitive to that fact and set aside
some quiet time to think and to plan about the future.
- It is important to "play dumb" when talking to a non-player who
is not knowledgeable about the game. Be friendly. Be cheerful.
Be careful - don't accidently mention the game dynamics to
someone who isn't interested or who already has questions about
your 'gaming interests.'
- If you have an answering machine, I recommend that you turn it
off during the evening hours when you are getting all of your
phone calls. If you time it right, it will only ring once and
all of the other calls will come through as "beeps" so all you
have to do is 'click over.' It is polite to keep the phone
from ringing again and again.
- If you have a fax machine, never leave it on automatic. there
is no need to deafen the telemarketer with that TONE, or your
mother for that matter.
- DO NOT GET ANGRY when a non-player laughs at your misfortune.
Please try to see the other side of the situation. The non
player truly sees it as a game and has not lost a grip on
reality.
In conclusion, I want to stress the importance of cooperation,
consideration and compromise. They are important between gamers as
you all know. They are also important between players and non-
players. Before you know it, the game will be a part of your life
and it can be a unique and creative way to spend time together.
Personal Challenge Combat Results
(Editor's Note: last issue, an article concerning this topic was
submitted by David Foreman. Keith Petersen responds):
I'd have to check further, but it has always been my understanding
(and the understanding of several others) that all skill rolls are
open ended. You can keep rolling ad infinitum so long as you roll
01-05 or 96-100. (I've played ICE, and their system is open ended).
So a 300 pt skill wouldn't be insurmountable (statisticly non-
significant, probably! (g)), but not impossible.
(Editor's Note: this concerns the assertion that combat spells
affect challenge ranks. Keith asked GSI directly (you beat me to
it, Keith!), and this is their reply):
Keith,
This rumor is untrue. Combat spells have no effect
on personal challenges. I am unsure about where in
WOTW this rumor started. Do you have any more
information regarding it? Please realize also that
most of the material in WOTW is player-submitted,
and as such, GSI is not responsible for the accuracy
of its content.
Good Gaming! Jason, GSI
(However, Darren Beyer tracked down an issue of Whispers which
addressed exactly this question. Here's the result of his
research):
To my knowledge the question dealing with Combat Spells and
challenges was published by GSI in the QA section of Whispers 3
times (though I was only ably to find the latest two issues). The
two I've been able to find were the April 1993 and the December 1993
issues.
The question in the December 1993 issue is on page 10, second
question. It is written as follows:
Q: How does the "combat bonus" for artifacts and spells affect
personal combat? Naval combat?
A: The "combat bonus"" value is translated into values for:
Personal combat = value/50 (i.e. a 500 bonus becomes 10)
Naval Combat = value/100 (i.e. a 1000 bonus becomes a 10)
This is pretty clear, the question clearly asks how artifacts AND
SPELLS affect personal combat. If this is a misprint by GSI, its
been around since the first Whispers QA section (almost two years
ago) and has been wrongly reprinted multiple times. Any light you
can shed on this subject would be appreciated.
Top Tens
The following 'top ten' lists are a bit specific to game 60 (to
appreciate the full humor, you need to have played in it). I
thought I'd pass them along anyway.
Top 10 Reasons Why the Free Peoples Have Yet To Win the Game
By Michael Robinson
10. Noldo dress uniforms taking too long at the cleaners
9. Cardolan won't stop sending gold to the Witch King
8. FP: dwarves, elves,&hobbits; DS: orcs, trolls, & dragons
7. In other games Northman players reliable part of FP team,
unlike one Northman player we could mention
6. Galadriel whacked in the knee by jealous rival
5. Gondorian "Don't ask, don't tell" recruitment policy
4. Dwarves on ponies
3. Arthedainian penchant to confuse the terms Bobbitt and Hobbit
2. We're just waiting for the Corsair fleet to arrive
And the number 1 reason the FP have yet to win the game
1. Gandalf's gone fishin'
Top Ten Reasons the Servants haven't won the game:
By David Foreman
10: Mages refuse to go to the bathroom in groups of three or less
9: Agents were named by Richard Simmons
8: Murazor accepted the offer of a midnight liaison with Cirdan
7: Sauron has NO sense of humor
6: Throckmaw has REALLY bad breath (I should know).
5: Recent agent operations planned and executed by out of work
members of the Republican Guard
4: Blind Sorcerer troops on camels
3: Would YOU follow a leader named UKLURG???
2: Population center development policy determined by visiting
delegation led by Warren Christopher
And the number 1 reason the Servants haven't won the game:
1: The Ice King STILL hasn't figured out why the 'Welcome Mahcared'
banners at Durthang didn't work
(Editor's Note: Brian Mason was struck by the creativity bug
recently, resulting in a deluge of useful material. Rather than
print each article in a separate issue, I decided to put them all
together here.)
The Problem with Army and Troop Training, Part II
By Brian Mason
Gentle Reader:
In reading through my article of "The Mouth" #4, I came across an
error in my derivation. This is intended to correct this.
The increase in army or troop strength through training was given in
the second equation as:
| pts |
| 1 + --- | * CN.
| 400 |
This equation is in error, as it does not take into account the
increase in the army or troop strength due to the increase in the
command rank of the army commander (assuming it is he and not a
subcommander doing the training). The correct expression should be:
| pts | | com |
| 1 + --- | * CN * | 1 + --- |,
| 400 | | 400 |
where com is the increase in the command rank of the army commander.
The third equation is not in error, so if we again take
C = 1,
N = unknown,
TR = 60,
n = 400,
tr = 10,
pts = 3,
and,
com = 2.
We arrive at a smaller value for N of 31,904 troops. While this is
significantly different than the value given in the first iteration
of this analysis, it does not change the conclusion that troop
training is not nearly as effective at increasing army offensive
strength as recruiting more troops.
The result which surprised me the most is how the equation worked
out.
[1 + (pts/400)][1 + (com/400)]N = {1 - [TR - ({NTR + ntr}/{N +
n})]}(N + n) * 400 yields
(400 pts)[1 + (com/400)]N = [400 - TR + (NTR + ntr)/(N + n)](N + n)
(400 + pts)(N + Ncom/400) = 400N + 400n - NTR - ntr NTR + ntr
***note that the training of both types cancels out!
400N + Npts + Ncom + Nptscom/400 = 400N + 400n
N(400pts + 400com +ptscom) = 160,000n
The final result then is
160,000 n
N = -----------------------.
400pts + 400com + ptscom
A very surprising result!
The choice of 2 for commander skill rank increase was not arbitrary,
but was selected as it represented the average skill rank increase
for a commander using army training if his skill level was between
50 and 59 (More Character and Skill Development, Tom Walton, The
Mouth, #3).
It would be interesting to see if the increase in training of troops
is strictly random (1-5 or 1-7) or, like skill rank increase, is a
function of either training commander skill rank or previous troop
training level or both. Preliminary results (below) would seem to
indicate that this is the case, and also, that the choice of, pts =
3, might be optimistic.
A new PostScript file of this plot as well as the IDL program which
plots it is available upon request. The program now plots army size
versus the number of troops.
Arriving at an Equation to Represent Skill Rank Increases
by Brian Mason
However, to more accurately predict what skill rank increase might
be predicted the values presented in this article were analyzed to
determine possible trends.
Inspecting the values presented in More Character and Skill
Development (Tom Walton, The Mouth, #3) trends are noted, the first,
rather obvious one is that as the skill level increases the skill
rank increase drops. It is unclear whether the dropoff is linear or
some other function of x. It is unlikely that the other function of
x is some higher order polynomial as those tend to have points of
inflection, and changes of sign in the slope: things which are not
observed in this data set. So, in addition to linear, another choice
would be exponential.
If the choice is linear, the solution is rather simple. Taking a
least-squares fit approach to a discrete data-set we arrive at the
following solution:
L I N E A R L E A S T - S Q U A R E S F I T
---------------------------------------------------
| | x | f | x^2 | xf || p |(p-f)|(p-f)^2|
|----|-----|------------------||----|-----|-------|
|pt 1| 14.5| 3.7| 210.2| 53.7|| 3.6| -.1| .01|
|pt 2| 24.5| 3.2| 600.2| 78.4|| 3.2| .0| .00|
|pt 3| 34.5| 2.9| 1190.2|100.0|| 2.9| -.0| .00|
|pt 4| 44.5| 2.6| 1980.2|115.7|| 2.5| -.1| .01|
|pt 5| 54.5| 2.1| 2970.2|114.5|| 2.2| .1| .00|
|pt 6| 64.5| 1.7| 4160.2|109.6|| 1.8| .1| .01|
|pt 7| 74.5| 1.3| 5550.2| 96.9|| 1.5| .2| .02|
|pt 8| 84.5| 1.0| 7140.2| 84.5|| 1.1| .1| .01|
|pt 9| 94.5| 1.0| 8930.2| 94.5|| .7| -.3| .07|
|----|-----|------------------||----|-----|-------|
|sum |490.5|19.5|32732.2|847.8||19.5| .0| .14|
---------------------------------------------------
490.5 M + 9 B = 19.5
32732.25 M + 490.5 B =847.75
-240590 M - 4414.5 B = -9564
294590 M + 4414.5 B = 7629
54000 M + 0 B = -1935
M= -.035
B= 4.119
B E S T F I T E Q U A T I O N
P (x) = 4.12 - 0.035 x
However, there is an objection with a linear fit of this form. The
quality of fit drops off considerably with commanders of rank 90 and
above. It predicts a value which is below the allowable skill rank
increase. Namely, it predicts a 0.7 result when 1 is the minimum
increase. The problem would get worse at higher skill ranks, but
whether player characters can go above 100 in skill rank is
uncertain. The quality of fit, however is quite good with the sum of
the difference between experimental and predicted values zero, and
the squared difference only 0.14.
Using the same approach for skill rank increases on the 1-7 scale a
linear result arrived at is:
P (x) = 5.25 - 0.044 x.
The quality of fit here is not quite as good with the difference 0.0
and the squared difference 0.39.
Again, using the same approach for 1-10 skill rank increases, the
result arrived at is:
P (x) = 8.17 - 0.078 x
The quality of fit here is very good with the difference 0.0 and the
squared difference 0.13.
If the choice is exponential, the solution is more complicated,
however it is still a simple proble to solve. Again, taking a least-
squares fit approach to a discrete data-set we arrive at the
following solution:
E X P O N E N T I A L L E A S T - S Q U A R E S F I T
------------------------------------------------------------
| | x | f |g-(ln f)| x^2 | xg || p |(p-f)|(p-f)^2|
|----|-----|----|----------------------||----|-----|-------|
|pt 1| 14.5| 3.7| 1.3| 210.2| 19.0|| 4.0| .3| .09|
|pt 2| 24.5| 3.2| 1.2| 600.2| 28.5|| 3.3| .1| .02|
|pt 3| 34.5| 2.9| 1.1| 1190.2| 36.7|| 2.8| -.1| .01|
|pt 4| 44.5| 2.6| 1.0| 1980.2| 42.5|| 2.3| -.3| .07|
|pt 5| 54.5| 2.1| .7| 2970.2| 40.4|| 2.0| -.1| .02|
|pt 6| 64.5| 1.7| .5| 4160.2| 34.2|| 1.6| -.1| .00|
|pt 7| 74.5| 1.3| .3| 5550.2| 19.5|| 1.4| .1| .00|
|pt 8| 84.5| 1.0| 0.0| 7140.2| 0.0|| 1.1| .1| .02|
|pt 9| 94.5| 1.0| 0.0| 8930.2| 0.0|| 1.0| -.0| .00|
|----|-----|----|----------------------||----|-----|-------|
|sum |490.5|19.5| 6.0|32732.2|220.9||19.5| .0| .24|
------------------------------------------------------------
490.5 M + 9 B = 6.0266356
32732.25 M + 490.5 B = 220.92804
-240590 M - 4414.5 B = -2956.064
294590 M + 4414.5 B = 1988.3524
54000 M + 0 B = -967.7123
M= -.0179206
B= 1.6462988
B E S T F I T E Q U A T I O N
P (x) = 5.19 e ^ (-0.0179 x)
The objection to an exponential fit still exsists, but is not quite
as strong. The exponential fit only breaks down at skill levels of
100 or greater where the predicted value drops below 1. How
significant this objection is depends on whether player characters
can go above 100 in skill rank. The quality of fit is about the same
as the linear with the sum of the difference between experimental
and predicted values zero, and the squared difference 0.24.
Using the same approach for skill rank increases on the 1-7 scale a
exponential result arrived at is:
P (x) = 6.93 e ^ (-0.0184 x)
The quality of fit here is poor. While the difference is only 0.1
and the squared difference 2.00.
Again, using the same approach for 1-10 skill rank increases, the
result arrived at is:
P (x) = 10.56 e ^ (-0.0194 x)
The quality of fit here is better with the difference 0.0 and the
squared difference 0.22.
In all cases the quality of the linear fit is better than that of
the exponential fit. The only thing the exponential has going for it
is better behavior at higher skill rank values, and this is the very
place where the information is most sketchy.
After looking over the data the most likely possibility is that the
result is a non-continuous linear function. For example, linear as
described above between 10 and 89, and above 89 the result is always
1.
Also, it must be pointed out that the predicted result is only the
mean skill rank increase with the actual value for each skill rank
increase some non-continuous distribution function around this mean
value. It is possible that the distribution function is just a
simple Gaussian distribution which then rounds all values outside
the allowable range to the extreme value, either low or high.
PostScript graphs of these plots and the IDL programs which generate
them are available upon request.
Looking for Statistical Trends in Data
by Brian Mason
The past few articles, on character development, army and troop
training, and establishing equations for character development have
led me to look into other data for similar situations where it might
be possible to predict development of various parameters more
accurately. Specifically, I decided to look at increases in morale
rank for no activity and increases in training rank through army and
troop training. It must be pointed out, however, that I consider all
this information preliminary and the numbers not statistically
significant to go through a more comprehensive leasst-squares
analysis like the previous article.
In looking for other possible trends, previous turn reports were
inspected to see for any possible correlations between the amount of
points a troop gained in training compared with the commanders skill
rank and with the training rank of the unit on the previous turn.
For troop training the numbers were insufficient to look for any
possible trends. The results are below.
Troop Training based on Commander Skill Rank
Skill Rank Number Mean St. Dev.
============================================
10-19 2 5.0 0.0
20-29 1 2.0 0.0
30-39 0 --- ---
40-49 4 3.5 0.5
50-59 2 4.5 0.5
60-69 0 --- ---
70-79 0 --- ---
80-89 0 --- ---
90-99 0 --- ---
Troop Training based on Previous Training Rank
Skill Rank Number Mean St. Dev.
============================================
10-19 4 3.2 0.8
20-29 1 3.0 0.0
30-39 1 5.0 0.0
40-49 0 --- ---
50-59 0 --- ---
60-69 1 5.0 0.0
70-79 2 4.5 0.5
80-89 0 --- ---
90-99 0 --- ---
For army training the results were somewhat more interesting. If we
first consider the results based on the commander skill rank, there
are no results from 10-19 and above 69. Also, the numbers at 20-29
and 60-69 cannot be considered as significant as the sample is not
large enough. However, the results from 30-59 are compelling. They
would seem to indicate that the higher the commander rank, the more
the troop type will gain in training points. They might also
indicate that my selection of three points as an average training
increase is optimistic.
Army Training based on Commander Skill Rank
Skill Rank Number Mean St. Dev.
============================================
10-19 0 --- ---
20-29 1 2.0 0.0
30-39 29 1.4 0.5
40-49 17 2.0 0.7
50-59 16 2.2 0.9
60-69 1 4.0 0.0
70-79 0 --- ---
80-89 0 --- ---
90-99 0 --- ---
The results for army training would seem to indicate that the
previous skill rank of the troop does not correlate with increase in
skill rank, although it could be that the sample outside the 30-39
range is too small to spot any trends.
Army Training based on Previous Skill Rank
Skill Rank Number Mean St. Dev.
============================================
10-19 4 1.3 0.4
20-29 0 --- ---
30-39 45 1.8 0.7
40-49 15 2.1 1.0
50-59 3 1.7 0.5
60-69 0 --- ---
70-79 0 --- ---
80-89 0 --- ---
90-99 0 --- ---
The results for morale increase based on commander rank might
indicate a correlation between morale increase and commander rank,
however, the total variation seen is less than half any standard
deviation. Clearly, more data is needed to verify this preliminary
conclusion.
Morale based on Commander Skill Rank
Skill Rank Number Mean St. Dev.
============================================
10-19 0 --- ---
20-29 0 --- ---
30-39 24 2.0 0.8
40-49 27 2.1 0.8
50-59 26 2.3 0.7
60-69 12 2.3 0.7
70-79 0 --- ---
80-89 0 --- ---
90-99 0 --- ---
There does not appear to be any correlation between morale increase
and previous morale rank, though, again, more data might help bear
this out.
Morale based on Previous Morale Rank
Skill Rank Number Mean St. Dev.
============================================
10-19 0 --- ---
20-29 0 --- ---
30-39 9 2.3 0.7
40-49 54 2.2 0.8
50-59 18 2.2 0.8
60-69 8 2.1 0.8
70-79 0 --- ---
80-89 0 --- ---
90-99 0 --- ---
Tactics and Strategy: Cardolan
by Brian Mason
Hard lessons have been learned. In game 62 the editor of "The Mouth"
as the Witch-King positively drubbed my Cardolan (Editor's Note:
Brian fails to mention that even though Arthedain dropped on turn 7
and both Rhudaur and Dunland went evil, he still managed to hold all
of us off for about 24 or 25 turns - hardly what I'd call a
'drubbing'). The experience in that game has led me to develop what
follows as a starting strategy for Cardolan. I will start in a
similar manner as my previous "Woodmen" article, but will fall then
into a more specific turn-by-turn description. I will make specific
moves for characters and (at least, to myself) count economics to
the last piece of gold. While these will not necessarily be the same
in every game, they certainly would have been true for one game.
How does the Cardolan compare to other nations? At the start of the
game they rank as follows (Allegiance Comparison Tables, Tom
Walton):
among all players among FP
Total Tax Base 7th 4th
Resource Base tied for 12th 7th
Combat Strength tied for 19th 8th
Character points tied for 23rd 10th
Artifacts tied for 20th tied for 8th
Cardolan is weak in very many areas. But the strength of the
economy, its somewhat isolated location, and its ability to hire
armies can make up for many mistakes.
Probably the most important capability of Cardolan is to hire armies
at no cost. Without the split command orders, new Cardolan armies
can be hired on the spot free of charge. Only Rhudaur and the Fire
King share this ability. But the Fire King does not have the
population centers Cardolan does and Rhudaur must spend a turn by
first hiring the army as Men-at-Arms before it can begin recruiting
better quality troops.
The strategy is as follows:
Pre-existing conditions
Characters: Aethelan is at 1317. Earnil is at 1614 with 900
men-at-arms. Echorion is at 1514. Finduilas III is at 1513. Hallas
is at 1510. Imlach is at 1219 with 300 heavy infantry and 600 men-
at-arms. Lanaigh is at 1510 with 600 heavy cavalry, 300 light
cavalry, 300 heavy infantry, 300 light infantry, and 600 men-at-
arms. Pelendur is at 1113 with 300 heavy infantry, 300 archers, and
600 men-at-arms.
Specific sales will be made. There will, no doubt, be errors in the
sale values from game to game, however, the results do give a flavor
for what can be done. Buy and sell amounts and prices will be based
on game 62 values.
Opening Strategy
Turn one moves: Aethelan hires an army of 300 heavy infantry and
moves the army northeast to 1513. Earnil recruits 400 heavy infantry
and moves his army to 1513. Echorion influences the population
center and hires an army of 300 heavy infantry. Finduilas sells all
leather and prentices magery. Hallas guard Lanaigh and moves to
1513. Imlach conducts troop maneuvers and moves the navy to 1614.
Lanaigh recruits 300 heavy infantry and does a recon. Pelendur
recruits 300 heavy infantry and moves the army to 1513.
Turn two moves: Aethelan transfers all his troops and names a
character of emissary rank 30. Earnil names a commander and moves
his army to 1710. Echorion recruits 300 heavy infantry and moves his
army to 1710. Finduilas sells all food and prentices magery. Hallas
changes the tax rate to 70% and moves to 1614. Imlach recruits 400
heavy infantry and moves his army to 1710. Lanaigh recruits 300
heavy infantry and moves his army to 1710. Pelendur recruits 400
heavy infantry and moves his army to 1710.
Turn three moves: Aethelan sells all food and moves and joins
Earnil's army at 1806. Earnil conducts army maneuvers and moves his
army to 1806. Echorion transfers command to Earnil and moves to
1317. The new commander hires an army of 400 heavy infantry and
sells all mounts. Finduilas researches a spell and prentices
magery. Hallas hires an army of 400 heavy infantry and guards 1614.
Imlach transfers command to Earnil and moves to 1113. Lanaigh
transfers command to Earnil and moves to 1514. Pelendur transfers
command to Earnil and moves to 1510. The new emissary names another
emissary and moves to 1609.
Future turns: At this point, Cardolan is in a very precarious
financial situation. While it has a large per turn deficit, it also
has a large gold reserve of around 60000. However, continuing
rotating sales of the four commodities it produces the most of:
food, leather, mounts, and timber, should keep it in the black. It
is currently poised to become the strongest military force West of
the Misty Mountains. Earnil has an army of 7800 troops ready to
strike at Angmar. Commanders are sitting at population centers, all
within one-turns march of 1513, capable of recruiting 2000 troops
per turn. It also has two new emissaries, and is poised, on turn
four, to make a third.
If I were playing Cardolan I would move Earnil's army towards
Cargash hoping to meet armies which it could destroy and destroy any
population center it comes across, recruit at all available
population centers, and create an emissary. Cardolan can build up
armies faster than any other nation, and in a prolonged war of
attrition, it will come out on top. So, contrary to conventional
wisdom, I would go after the Witch-King's armies, hoping to wear him
out.
Another important option which Cardolan should use would be to
encourage significant early cooperation with the Noldo.
Specifically, give the Noldo all the Cardolan ships (which at the
end of turn one will be at 1614). This will give the Noldo a
heightened naval power and will concentrate all the far northwest
naval forces in one group so that they may form an effective
fighting and naval operations force. Also, this will save Cardolan
1200 gold per turn. In addition to this the Noldo should be
encouraged to sabotage all Cardolan harbors and ports. This will
allow Noldo agents to improve faster, heighten (to a small degree)
Cardolan security, and save Cardolan a further 1250 gold per turn.
This is an extremely aggressive strategy, and one which demands
constant attention to finances. Cardolan's production should be used
to generate more income to keep the armies growing. After two turns
recruiting, the "in Cardolan" forces will total almost 5000 while
Earnil's army will either be very small or destroyed. I would
combine these 5000 troops together and start the process all over
again.