From the Mouth of Sauron Issue: E-5 Date: 01-21-94 Note: all authors retain exclusive rights to their material. Reprinting is allowed for non-commercial game use only. Editorial Hello once again. First off, missed mail. Considering the rather enormous amount of email I've been getting since the Mouth took off, it's quite possible that I'll somehow misplace or forget about something you sent me for publication. If you don't see whatever it is you sent me in the Mouth that goes out the Friday after, drop me a line and ask me what the hell I think I'm doing. Since my policy is to print anything that's even remotely connected to ME-PBM, a failure to publish what you sent to me means a mistake on my part. A swift kick in the ass will usually jog my memory. (Note that articles are usually printed in the order received, if only for my own convenience). Two new columns come to light this time around. The first is the "ME-PBM Wish List". This column asks the question: if you were the computer god of this game, what would you change? What alterations would you make in the rules, set-ups, or code? What new things would you add, or old things eliminate? It doesn't have to be realistic; nothing in this column will spur GSI to make any changes to the game. The point here is to tell other players what you think would make the game better, no matter how drastic the suggestion might be. I put in a few examples to give you an idea of what I mean. Commentary is most welcome, as usual. The second column is called "How I Got Shafted in ME-PBM". This serves a different function, and one that one day may actually be of some use. I'm trying to pinpoint the most common mistakes, misinterpretations, and handicaps that new players operate under. So stretch your memory back to that misty far-off time when you were a new player and ask yourself: what about the game was confusing? What orders got your troops wiped out and your characters killed because the rules didn't describe them very well? In other words, if GSI was writing an instruction manual for new players concerning the game, what do YOU suggest they add to that manual so that other guys and gals won't make the same mistakes? Here's an opportunity to vent on the injustices heaped upon you when you first joined Middle Earth-PBM! Within the Mouth this time you're going to find a number of commentaries by Leslie Foreman, the lovely wife of David Foreman. These commentaries were originally run over several issues of the Free People Press (David's baby), giving all of us in game 60 the opportunity to experience Leslie's wit and charm first-hand (and to envy Dave!). Leslie doesn't play the game, she just has the misfortune of being saddled with a gamer-husband; but her observations on gamer antics were something I looked forward to with each issue of The Press. If anything, the commentaries reminded me on a regular basis just how silly the game can really be. I hope you enjoy them as much as I did. And thanks to Leslie and David, for giving me permission to run the articles in The Mouth. Finally, any more comments on the Woodmen opening strategy in issues 3 and 4? Any alternatives people would like to submit? That does it. Until next Friday, Tom Artifacts Believe it or not, no changes this time around. Encounters Celgor: I'm told by a reliable source that the i.d. for Celgor is VAMPI, not CELGO (which stands for VAMPIre Celgor). So, if you want to transfer artifacts to him, locate him via spell, etc., use VAMPI as his i.d. I'm also told that Celgor may be the only vampire in the game. Whether this is true or not I don't know; I've never personally run into a vampire to tell you otherwise, although a number of people claim to have encountered a female vampire (Celgor in drag?). If anyone has the answer, I'd appreciate hearing it. Dragons Lamthanc's combat strength has been confirmed at 45,000. This seems to confirm my suspicion that dragons are either generic or fall into a few classes at most (thanks to Tori DeYoung for this one). Any guesses on what the average dragon challenge rank/health total is? Other Corrections and Notes In newer games, Uvatha's skill ranks have been changed. He used to be a C60 A10 E10; he's now a C60 A20 E20. I first noticed this in game 140, but don't know when GSI first made the alteration (my latest setup previous to this is game 54). Okay, let's see if I can get this right...the Sinda fleet at 4413 has 6 warships and 3 transports, not 6 warships and 6 transports. Thanks to Tori DeYoung and others for bringing this mis-correction to my attention. Wes Fortin made an interesting observation and is looking for comments. Essentially, it runs like this: Two armies are facing off. The commander of the first army issues personal challenge to the commander of the second army. The second commander refuses the challenge (the first army commander has a higher challenge rank than the second army commander). In the ensuing combat, the first army wins. Now here's the tricky part: because the second army commander originally refused a challenge by the winning first army commander, that second commander is more likely to be killed after losing the army combat. So what do you all think? Any evidence out there to confirm or deny this? Any commentary? Brian Mason asks the question: What are the combat values of Woses, Ents, Eagles, Mumakil, Fell Beasts, etc.? I've never bothered to track this data, so any information you all out there may have would be most welcome (others are interested in the answers as well). Jerry Clark wants to know: What is a reasonable agent level for an assassination attempt and for a kidnap? This question has a complicated answer, and I'd like to defer it to someone who does more assassinations than I do. Any takers? In Your Ear (Editor's Note: last issue yours truly wrote a piece on using scorched earth tactics within the game for this column. The point was to generate some responses and, if lucky, perhaps even an outraged debate or two. The replies to my article follow:) From Wes Fortin I very much agree with you on that issue, Tom. I'd like to expand on the idea of Scorched Earth some, and state that it is best used in a "commerce raid" style of attack. That is to say, penetrate the enemy with about 2500HI and a 40-50 commander (or less if that's all you've got) and burn his pop centers. Focus on towns or smaller, try to conserve the troops as long as possible. DstPop is easier and costs fewer troops than CptrPop so those troops should be good for 3-5 hits (assuming no opposition by enemy troops). Eventually, this army will have about 300 troops left, too small for much of anything. Either disband it, or try to make it back to the rest of your army to take advantage of the high morale those troops will have. If you have 60+ commanders, I would recommend hitting the same targets with 1000AR armies and using THREAT instead of slash and burn. Use this in combination with a larger slash and burn force, and the enemy suddenly has several targets to contend with and must either absorb the losses, or divert resources to stop your armies. If you plan it correctly, you can followup commerce raids with a big strike to hit the Major Towns and Cities. Commerce Raid attacks are usually productive, and cheap to maintain. They are especially effective for poor economy nations (like the Woodmen and any Dark Servant) facing a large economy foe. More importantly, your enemy will probably be spending more time chasing commerce raiders to save his economy and production and less time launching large assaults against you! Initially, the Free peoples probably won't need Slash and Burn much. It's great against camps, trains wimpy commanders, and might yield a high morale army. In addition to affecting the loyalty of all the target nation's pop centers! But the Freeps usually have enough military advantage to capture pop centers and force the baddies divert their few resources to recapturing pop centers - thus leaving themselves open to further Freep invasion forces. Remember, the Freeps start with about a 2:1 military advantage and a bigger economic advantage. The best way to equalize that is to destroy his economy quickly so the Freeps can't maintain those crushing armies - and slash and burn is a good tactic for those mid level commanders to use! From Keith Petersen Have you considered that scorched earth also destroys the tax base, and thus would lower the prices for market? Hence, not only wouldn't DS get the few turns income, they also could lower the prices they'll get for their own goods! (ouch!) From Glen Mayfield I too am a fan of a scorched earth policy, but under different circumstances. For me, a scorched earth policy works best when playing a Free People. The reason for this is simply economics. Most Free People can get by reasonably well without adding pop centers to those they start with. The Dark Servants not only need additional pop centers but certainly can't afford to lose any of those they start with. As a result, a suicide run by a FP army with the intent to destroy DS pop centers well beyond the area they expect to be able to defend can be very effective. Not only will the loss of the destroyed pop centers seriously damage the DS in question but may (coupled with the inevitable tax hike) cost them much needed camps due to loyalty loss. It can start a vicious cycle which leads to the demise of the nation. As with all strategies, this is, of course, more easily written than carried out but I have seen it work to good effect. For the Dark Servants, I see a scorched earth policy as an extreme measure in most cases. As you suggest, when used in an effort to create confusion and terror it can be quite useful (though only when used selectively IMHO). Softening up other pop centers for emissaries by destroying exposed pop centers is also an excellent strategy under the right circumstances. Still , I see these uses of scorched earth as just a small part of a larger strategy which must include capturing FP pop centers. If a DS can only expect to hold a pop center for 1-2 turns then destroying it is the route to take (but you must ask if that was the best place for that army to be ...sometimes yes, perhaps others not.) If you can expect to hold it for 3+ turns but not indefinately you also have to ask several questions: 1) How long can I expect to hold it? 2) Is it productive enough that those turns make it a boon to my hard pressed economy? 3) Can I expect the FPs to waste time and effort to recapture what may not be a location of strategic import? 4) If it has fortifications will it stop enemy movement long enough to prepare a defense? Depending on how one answers these questions, capturing may be the best option even if the pop center is likely to be lost some time in the future. Naturally the best bet is to take something you have a chance to hold on to. Admittedly not always possible. When that's the case I consider scorched earth but not always reaching the same conclusions as your article suggets. Of course that's what makes PBMs fun. Lot's of ways to approach the same question without any 'right' answer. See you in the Misty Mountains (hopefully not as a dragon's dinner!) From Brian Mason In my most recent turn I captured rather than destroyed Mt. Gram. I needed the gold! As you might remember (or could look back and see) in game 62 I took Cargash from you and then developed a "hedgehog" defense. The idea with the "hedgehog" is to capture a fortified population center deep within enemy territory. Then sit on it and recruit troops. The enemy will tie down resources guarding against your moves out of the defense, and raising troops to overcome it. It may allow you a respite from attacks of a single adversary and give you time to raise the troops necessary to go back and relieve the forces. And Another Topic This isn't to put an end to the discussion on scorched earth, but to add to the list of stuff that we can argue over. Remember, any of you can bring up a topic as well, possibly spurring several concurrent discussions on different things. The topic I suggest here is the role of the Neutral. As a long-time player of neutrals and one who loves these positions more than any allegiance nation, I've heard a wide variety of comments on neutrals. These remarks have ranged the gamut, from favorable to scathingly scatological (these last do not bear repeating in polite company). Example: in one of my games, a player said that neutrals added 'excitement' to ME-PBM, and allowed an otherwise defeated side some hope of making a comeback. Another player in the same game suggested that I was somehow morally deficient for choosing a neutral in the first place, and that the only 'fair' thing to do would be for me to drop so I didnt' 'ruin' the balance of power! Different viewpoints indeed. My own view is that neutrals are necessary, else the game degenerates to a slugfest between two sides whose abilities are well-known. Without the added unpredictable factor that neutrals give to the game, the balance of power remains eternally static and incredibly dull. Worse, the option for playing a game of intrigue and diplomacy falls to nil, unless one is low enough to engage in underhanded deals with the enemy in order to gain an advantage. Of course, many players would just as soon dispense with diplomacy altogether. I've noticed that in the later games the allegiances will rarely even part with a few lousy artifacts to gain a neutral's aid, much less condescend to transferring pop centers or retiring characters (grumble, grumble). Even worse, many players operate on the assumption that neutrals should be wooed to their side, then destroyed in the end-game. The reasoning? Neutrals shouldn't be 'allowed' to win. Frankly (and here's where I'm going to get into trouble, I know it), I think people who deal with the words 'should' and 'fair', getting on a high horse to attribute some moral imperative to a game, are unmitigated twits. In defense of those who complain about neutrals, I do believe they hold too much power. If 4 or 5 neutrals declare for a single side, that side becomes unbeatable assuming competent play. I don't like this any better than anyone else (it makes the game too short and too easy), but I can't see a solution other than to either reduce neutral resources (bad move) or limit the number of neutrals who can join any single side (max of 3 on one side). This last would take an Act of Bill, which happens too rarely to hold out any near-term hope. Another annoying habit of some neutral players is to stay out of the war grabbing victory points left and right, then declare for the win at the end-game. This, however, isn't the fault of the neutral position per se, but rather of the winning allegiance. If the dolts had any brains, they would've plastered the insolent neutral swine with character attacks prior to the end of the game. The fact that they didn't is their own fault; no neutral can stand against an allegiance in a character war. My own belief is that any southern neutral which doesn't join the war by turn 8 (turn 10 latest) should be destroyed by whichever side holds the advantage (although I've violated this imperative in several games); as for Dunland and Rhudaur, the time frame differs considerably based upon the course of current events. Of course, the neutrals could police themselves by joining whichever side is losing (thus evening the score), but how often does this happen? Many players seem to take great joy in winning the game by getting all the neutrals on their side, rather than doing so through skill and acumen. Moreover, a number of players who take neutrals often choose the 'safer' path, in the hopes that they'll grab a winning position. There's much more to be said, but I'm looking for replies. I hope my blunt criticism excites some of you to respond. Personals Game 88 The Free People are now willing to discuss terms for your unconditional surrender!!!!! Game 97 Dark Servants, you're doomed by your own foolish hostility. Watch and tremble.... ME-PBM Wish List Here are some examples to get the column started. Within the framework of the game: - alter the 'change allegiance' order so that only three neutrals can join any one side. The last two don't have a choice; either they remain neutral, or they join the opposition. - add a nation transport order that allows you to transport goods from several listed locations, rather than one location or all locations. This would reduce the logistical headache of trying to get goods to various places while in the midst of raising armies (e.g., you wouldn't 'steal' the bronze that an army needs to recruit with). Changes to the framework of the game: - eliminate Rhudaur as a player and divide this nation up among the Witch-King and one other Dark Servant. Move one of the Dark Servants from Mordor to the Misty Mountains/Rhudaur area to even out the regional disparities. Mordor is too crowded anyway. - alter the Dwarven setup by moving Zarak-dum to the Grey Mountains or Iron Hills. Remove the dwarven village on the Sea of Rhun and make the village in the Blue Mountains a town. - Spread Harad out more towards the internal south so that the position isn't 'pointed' at Southern Gondor. This gives Harad a more pressing interest in the south, in the activities of the Corsairs and Easterlings, and leaves him somewhat more vulnerable to attack by either side. Harad wins too much. - Reduce the Corsairs by one major town. The Corsairs win too much. - Move Vamag to the internal south. Vamag's current location sucks. How I Got Shafted in ME-PBM A couple of examples to get this column started: - first game was as the Long Rider. Not knowing anything at all about the enemy, I assumed that GSI in it's ultimate wisdom wouldn't give me a navy markedly smaller than that of my opposition. End result: one sunk navy, 3 dead characters. Solution: the setup includes a listing for ownership of forces and pop centers. Change the listing so it reads 'rumors indicate a small/medium/large army/navy at x location'. - a new player in a game I'm in saw a dragon at his pop center and assumed it was an enemy character. He challenged with Bain and died a horrible death. Since when is Bain so near-sighted he doesn't know a dragon when he sees one? Solution: list the dragon names in the rulebook under the glossary. - in yet another game, a new Northern Gondor player didn't understand just how vital secondary commanders and guards were. He lost four of his starting characters to challenges/assassinations in the first three turns, along with most of his army. He assumed (rightly, from his point of view) that the Dunedain were powerful and capable of standing up to most threats. Solution: include a warning in a player start-up sheet on making these sorts of assumptions. - in still another game, another new Northern Gondor player failed to consolidate his armies in the Ithil Pass (thinking that the enemy wouldn't outnumber his own forces too much). He got creamed and Mordor's armies are now marching through Gondor at whim. Solution: include a warning in a player start-up sheet on making assumptions about the strength of enemy forces. ME is NOT balanced like many other PBMs are. Commentary by Leslie Foreman (Editor's Note: this begins the commentary articles written by Leslie Foreman, as described in the Editorial. Several more follow this one.) The purpose of this passage is to say "Hello" (not Hail or Hark) and to share information concerning two little known conditions, which grip grown men, and cause otherwise calm, sensitive individuals to become easily distracted and agitated. The primary candidates are men who play in GSI Middle Earth - Play By Mail. We will identify the conditions as A and B. The symptoms and visible effects are as follows: CONDITION A: - an over-anxious need to know "has the mail come" - an all-consuming need to surpass the speed of light when going to the mailbox. (I have a rut in my front yard. I can't imagine if we had a mail-slot in the door. Our mailman would have no arms and look like that knight from Monty Python's "In Search of the Holy Grail." CONDITION B: - having your phone become so important to your husband that you feel obligated to serve it dinner. - speaking to and of people(?) that you have never met, and are not sure that you want to (Come now, all of MY friends have names like the Witch King & the Dog Lord). - hearing your husband talking about sacrificing hundreds of "heavy infantry" at "Minas Imsikovit" [pronounced "I'm sick of it" - DRF] when he puts the crickets back outside during the summer. These conditions are not terminal, they are also not life-long. They can and will eventually cease and with them the symptoms will no longer grip your husband. The conditions have been named Pre-Mail Syndrome and Post-Mail Syndrome. In conclusion, as caring spouses of men afflicted with PMS, all we can do is lend an interested ear when stories of victories and defeats are shared, be sure to make ALL of our phone calls before "turn week-end" and to get the h--- out of the way when the mail comes. Commentary by Leslie Foreman Gentlemen, oh I'm sorry, that's Gentle"creatures", HELLO to all of you! I hope that this commentary finds you well. I realized some days ago that I may have some useful advice for some of you in the light that you all travel so much - always moving from this hex to that hex. I thought you might be interested in some of my packing and travel tips. - Remember to put all of your valuables (i.e. rings, etc.) in a safe place BEFORE you begin your trip. If a ring, for example, gets lost or stolen, it is hard to find and it generally takes a long time. - When you begin your journey, remember to hide your gold in several places so it can't be taken all at once. Doesn't the First Bank of South Gondor issue Traveler's Checks? That is really a better idea. - I encourage you to pack some sort of candy or treat to give away on your trip. It has been reported that dragons will ignore, or even help, individuals who provide goodies! Dragons appear to prefer Mr. Goodnoldos, O Sinda and Baby Rhudaurs (a new and welcome addition to the list). - Remember to pack some suntan lotion - I can't imagine a "red- neck" dwarf! Bug spray is also a good idea. (How about a "red-neck" dwarf with major mosquito bites?) - With fashion in mind, I recommend wool with chain mail during the winter and then to change to a cotton broadcloth during the summer. That will allow your skin to breathe in the hot weather. - Never leave without your AAA Guidebook - Annotated Adventurer's Almanac . This will provide information concerning the best places to stay, the note-worthy events that occurred in the area and good tourist's attractions. When choosing a place to stay, here are some suggestions: - Look at the name of the establishment. If you want a good night's sleep, don't chose The One-Eyed Sailor for obvious reasons, if you get my "drift." - Try to find an inn where you can bathe. I've seen some of your pictures and "you look marvelous!" (Yeah, right!) I think you probably smell ripe, too. - Find a place near a nice restaurant. Good food may keep the troops happy and loyal. Who would you follow? Someone with cold Beefaroni in a can or someone with London Broil on the grill? - With aesthetics in mind, I recommend an establishment with that "homey" feeling and soft muted colors in the room. I personally prefer that the barrel for the water and the blanket on the straw be in coordinating fabrics. And always ask yourself, Did they leave the lantern burning for you? Finally, a reminder. As your mother told your during your youth, you always need to take a clean change of chain mail. You never know when you may be 'durthanged'* and need to be rushed to the local doctor. Hope these tips are helpful and that your travels are successful. * 'Durthanged' verb, to be utterly destroyed. Came into usage in game 60 after the Eothraim destroyed the capital of the Ice King. News Flash By David Foreman (Editor's Note: Dave wrote this after Harad managed to convince us that he was in all probability the worst player ever to burden Middle Earth. Harad was so bad, in fact, that he was administratively removed from game 60 and all other games he was in at the time - the only instance I know of where GSI actually yanked a player out and told him not to come back.) NEWS FLASH: Harad brain cell located! Mages from South Gondor have developed a new spell - 'Locate Character Truer' that allows queries on body parts. We have of late been after some of the parts of our slain brothers, and needed a spell that was a bit more specific than the standard 'Locate Character True'. It has to be cast by four mages in tandem because it has a Difficulty rating of "Really Super Hard." During Beta testing we needed a medium range target, and used a known Harad character name. When the vision came to the caster, the info gleaned was as follows: Main Body Mass: 2734 Other Parts: Brain: The Brain was not located, further attempts will never succeed. Other: Single Brain Cell @2227-Dol Amroth Cause of Separation: Desire for companionship Commentary by Leslie Foreman After spending the last 17 months observing ME-PBM games #22 and #60, I have come to the conclusion that the name 'Play by Mail' is a misnomer. After listening to conversations and reading The Press I feel that ME-SOBM (Soap Opera by Mail) would be better suited. Here are the headlines from the next issue of "Soap Gaming Digest:" - Will the Corsairs ever realize just how poorly planned their attack was? - Will Tarondor ever recover from the knowledge that he murdered the mother of his illegitimate love child? (Shelob's daughter) (That's mine! DRF] - Do the "Duns" have a fervent wish for a new nickname? - Is it Elladan or Elrohir that has the birthmark? - ALIENS ABDUCT RINGLIN, TAKE TO FIERY HOMEWORLD! His personality is altered and he is returned to WACO (Wander Around Counting Orcs) the rest of his days as a religious zealot. - Is Elrond the illegitimate son of Sauron? - Has Pope Phil ever considered selling New and Pricey Artifacts? (You know, be a NAPA salesman?) ...and last but not least..... - Has the Harad had a lobotomy? The answers to these and other questions may never be known, but it sure is fun looking for them. Good Gaming, guys! Commentary by Leslie Foreman PREFACE- Don't expect hysterical laughter this issue.... I have been involved with ME-PBM since December, 1991. When Dave described this "game" to me, it certainly sounded like something that HE would find fun and interesting. Now truth be known, I have enjoyed many aspects of the games in which Dave is involved. I have learned a lot about the game, about people in general and about Dave. Watching him plan his strategy is an exercise in thoroughness. I would like to attribute that quality to Mike (Noldo) Hostetter. Dave and I have spent a lot of time discussing the group dynamics of the players of ME-PBM. We have also discussed the dynamics within a group of characters as well as the expected response from the enemy. There is one more relationship which is important in the playing of ME-PBM, and that is between the player and the non-player(s) in the home. There are certain rules of etiquette, for lack of a better term, which need to be considered at all times by all members of the relationship. Etiquette for the Non-Player: - It is important to remember that it takes time to write up orders. Be sensitive to that fact and allow the player to have some quiet time to think and to plan. - It is important to "play dumb" on the phone when talking to one of the other players. Be friendly. Be cheerful. Be careful - I accidently mentioned something I wasn't supposed to when another player called. It wasn't anything major, but I learned my lesson. - If you have a answering machine and you happen to be at home during the day, I recommend that you only answer the phone 20% of the time. It is likely to be someone who "just wants to leave a message." - If you have a fax machine and you happen to be at home during the day, I recommend that you never answer the phone. It is probably someone who "justs wants to send a fax." - DO NOT LAUGH at any misfortune which befalls your player's characters, army or team. Even though you find it funny that he in concerned about a make-believe dragon killing his make- believe commander and therefore his make-believe army will be disbanded, it is not funny to him. Etiquette for the Player: - It is important to remember that it takes time to be an active member of the family. Be sensitive to that fact and set aside some quiet time to think and to plan about the future. - It is important to "play dumb" when talking to a non-player who is not knowledgeable about the game. Be friendly. Be cheerful. Be careful - don't accidently mention the game dynamics to someone who isn't interested or who already has questions about your 'gaming interests.' - If you have an answering machine, I recommend that you turn it off during the evening hours when you are getting all of your phone calls. If you time it right, it will only ring once and all of the other calls will come through as "beeps" so all you have to do is 'click over.' It is polite to keep the phone from ringing again and again. - If you have a fax machine, never leave it on automatic. there is no need to deafen the telemarketer with that TONE, or your mother for that matter. - DO NOT GET ANGRY when a non-player laughs at your misfortune. Please try to see the other side of the situation. The non player truly sees it as a game and has not lost a grip on reality. In conclusion, I want to stress the importance of cooperation, consideration and compromise. They are important between gamers as you all know. They are also important between players and non- players. Before you know it, the game will be a part of your life and it can be a unique and creative way to spend time together. Personal Challenge Combat Results (Editor's Note: last issue, an article concerning this topic was submitted by David Foreman. Keith Petersen responds): I'd have to check further, but it has always been my understanding (and the understanding of several others) that all skill rolls are open ended. You can keep rolling ad infinitum so long as you roll 01-05 or 96-100. (I've played ICE, and their system is open ended). So a 300 pt skill wouldn't be insurmountable (statisticly non- significant, probably! (g)), but not impossible. (Editor's Note: this concerns the assertion that combat spells affect challenge ranks. Keith asked GSI directly (you beat me to it, Keith!), and this is their reply): Keith, This rumor is untrue. Combat spells have no effect on personal challenges. I am unsure about where in WOTW this rumor started. Do you have any more information regarding it? Please realize also that most of the material in WOTW is player-submitted, and as such, GSI is not responsible for the accuracy of its content. Good Gaming! Jason, GSI (However, Darren Beyer tracked down an issue of Whispers which addressed exactly this question. Here's the result of his research): To my knowledge the question dealing with Combat Spells and challenges was published by GSI in the QA section of Whispers 3 times (though I was only ably to find the latest two issues). The two I've been able to find were the April 1993 and the December 1993 issues. The question in the December 1993 issue is on page 10, second question. It is written as follows: Q: How does the "combat bonus" for artifacts and spells affect personal combat? Naval combat? A: The "combat bonus"" value is translated into values for: Personal combat = value/50 (i.e. a 500 bonus becomes 10) Naval Combat = value/100 (i.e. a 1000 bonus becomes a 10) This is pretty clear, the question clearly asks how artifacts AND SPELLS affect personal combat. If this is a misprint by GSI, its been around since the first Whispers QA section (almost two years ago) and has been wrongly reprinted multiple times. Any light you can shed on this subject would be appreciated. Top Tens The following 'top ten' lists are a bit specific to game 60 (to appreciate the full humor, you need to have played in it). I thought I'd pass them along anyway. Top 10 Reasons Why the Free Peoples Have Yet To Win the Game By Michael Robinson 10. Noldo dress uniforms taking too long at the cleaners 9. Cardolan won't stop sending gold to the Witch King 8. FP: dwarves, elves,&hobbits; DS: orcs, trolls, & dragons 7. In other games Northman players reliable part of FP team, unlike one Northman player we could mention 6. Galadriel whacked in the knee by jealous rival 5. Gondorian "Don't ask, don't tell" recruitment policy 4. Dwarves on ponies 3. Arthedainian penchant to confuse the terms Bobbitt and Hobbit 2. We're just waiting for the Corsair fleet to arrive And the number 1 reason the FP have yet to win the game 1. Gandalf's gone fishin' Top Ten Reasons the Servants haven't won the game: By David Foreman 10: Mages refuse to go to the bathroom in groups of three or less 9: Agents were named by Richard Simmons 8: Murazor accepted the offer of a midnight liaison with Cirdan 7: Sauron has NO sense of humor 6: Throckmaw has REALLY bad breath (I should know). 5: Recent agent operations planned and executed by out of work members of the Republican Guard 4: Blind Sorcerer troops on camels 3: Would YOU follow a leader named UKLURG??? 2: Population center development policy determined by visiting delegation led by Warren Christopher And the number 1 reason the Servants haven't won the game: 1: The Ice King STILL hasn't figured out why the 'Welcome Mahcared' banners at Durthang didn't work (Editor's Note: Brian Mason was struck by the creativity bug recently, resulting in a deluge of useful material. Rather than print each article in a separate issue, I decided to put them all together here.) The Problem with Army and Troop Training, Part II By Brian Mason Gentle Reader: In reading through my article of "The Mouth" #4, I came across an error in my derivation. This is intended to correct this. The increase in army or troop strength through training was given in the second equation as: | pts | | 1 + --- | * CN. | 400 | This equation is in error, as it does not take into account the increase in the army or troop strength due to the increase in the command rank of the army commander (assuming it is he and not a subcommander doing the training). The correct expression should be: | pts | | com | | 1 + --- | * CN * | 1 + --- |, | 400 | | 400 | where com is the increase in the command rank of the army commander. The third equation is not in error, so if we again take C = 1, N = unknown, TR = 60, n = 400, tr = 10, pts = 3, and, com = 2. We arrive at a smaller value for N of 31,904 troops. While this is significantly different than the value given in the first iteration of this analysis, it does not change the conclusion that troop training is not nearly as effective at increasing army offensive strength as recruiting more troops. The result which surprised me the most is how the equation worked out. [1 + (pts/400)][1 + (com/400)]N = {1 - [TR - ({NTR + ntr}/{N + n})]}(N + n) * 400 yields (400 pts)[1 + (com/400)]N = [400 - TR + (NTR + ntr)/(N + n)](N + n) (400 + pts)(N + Ncom/400) = 400N + 400n - NTR - ntr NTR + ntr ***note that the training of both types cancels out! 400N + Npts + Ncom + Nptscom/400 = 400N + 400n N(400pts + 400com +ptscom) = 160,000n The final result then is 160,000 n N = -----------------------. 400pts + 400com + ptscom A very surprising result! The choice of 2 for commander skill rank increase was not arbitrary, but was selected as it represented the average skill rank increase for a commander using army training if his skill level was between 50 and 59 (More Character and Skill Development, Tom Walton, The Mouth, #3). It would be interesting to see if the increase in training of troops is strictly random (1-5 or 1-7) or, like skill rank increase, is a function of either training commander skill rank or previous troop training level or both. Preliminary results (below) would seem to indicate that this is the case, and also, that the choice of, pts = 3, might be optimistic. A new PostScript file of this plot as well as the IDL program which plots it is available upon request. The program now plots army size versus the number of troops. Arriving at an Equation to Represent Skill Rank Increases by Brian Mason However, to more accurately predict what skill rank increase might be predicted the values presented in this article were analyzed to determine possible trends. Inspecting the values presented in More Character and Skill Development (Tom Walton, The Mouth, #3) trends are noted, the first, rather obvious one is that as the skill level increases the skill rank increase drops. It is unclear whether the dropoff is linear or some other function of x. It is unlikely that the other function of x is some higher order polynomial as those tend to have points of inflection, and changes of sign in the slope: things which are not observed in this data set. So, in addition to linear, another choice would be exponential. If the choice is linear, the solution is rather simple. Taking a least-squares fit approach to a discrete data-set we arrive at the following solution: L I N E A R L E A S T - S Q U A R E S F I T --------------------------------------------------- | | x | f | x^2 | xf || p |(p-f)|(p-f)^2| |----|-----|------------------||----|-----|-------| |pt 1| 14.5| 3.7| 210.2| 53.7|| 3.6| -.1| .01| |pt 2| 24.5| 3.2| 600.2| 78.4|| 3.2| .0| .00| |pt 3| 34.5| 2.9| 1190.2|100.0|| 2.9| -.0| .00| |pt 4| 44.5| 2.6| 1980.2|115.7|| 2.5| -.1| .01| |pt 5| 54.5| 2.1| 2970.2|114.5|| 2.2| .1| .00| |pt 6| 64.5| 1.7| 4160.2|109.6|| 1.8| .1| .01| |pt 7| 74.5| 1.3| 5550.2| 96.9|| 1.5| .2| .02| |pt 8| 84.5| 1.0| 7140.2| 84.5|| 1.1| .1| .01| |pt 9| 94.5| 1.0| 8930.2| 94.5|| .7| -.3| .07| |----|-----|------------------||----|-----|-------| |sum |490.5|19.5|32732.2|847.8||19.5| .0| .14| --------------------------------------------------- 490.5 M + 9 B = 19.5 32732.25 M + 490.5 B =847.75 -240590 M - 4414.5 B = -9564 294590 M + 4414.5 B = 7629 54000 M + 0 B = -1935 M= -.035 B= 4.119 B E S T F I T E Q U A T I O N P (x) = 4.12 - 0.035 x However, there is an objection with a linear fit of this form. The quality of fit drops off considerably with commanders of rank 90 and above. It predicts a value which is below the allowable skill rank increase. Namely, it predicts a 0.7 result when 1 is the minimum increase. The problem would get worse at higher skill ranks, but whether player characters can go above 100 in skill rank is uncertain. The quality of fit, however is quite good with the sum of the difference between experimental and predicted values zero, and the squared difference only 0.14. Using the same approach for skill rank increases on the 1-7 scale a linear result arrived at is: P (x) = 5.25 - 0.044 x. The quality of fit here is not quite as good with the difference 0.0 and the squared difference 0.39. Again, using the same approach for 1-10 skill rank increases, the result arrived at is: P (x) = 8.17 - 0.078 x The quality of fit here is very good with the difference 0.0 and the squared difference 0.13. If the choice is exponential, the solution is more complicated, however it is still a simple proble to solve. Again, taking a least- squares fit approach to a discrete data-set we arrive at the following solution: E X P O N E N T I A L L E A S T - S Q U A R E S F I T ------------------------------------------------------------ | | x | f |g-(ln f)| x^2 | xg || p |(p-f)|(p-f)^2| |----|-----|----|----------------------||----|-----|-------| |pt 1| 14.5| 3.7| 1.3| 210.2| 19.0|| 4.0| .3| .09| |pt 2| 24.5| 3.2| 1.2| 600.2| 28.5|| 3.3| .1| .02| |pt 3| 34.5| 2.9| 1.1| 1190.2| 36.7|| 2.8| -.1| .01| |pt 4| 44.5| 2.6| 1.0| 1980.2| 42.5|| 2.3| -.3| .07| |pt 5| 54.5| 2.1| .7| 2970.2| 40.4|| 2.0| -.1| .02| |pt 6| 64.5| 1.7| .5| 4160.2| 34.2|| 1.6| -.1| .00| |pt 7| 74.5| 1.3| .3| 5550.2| 19.5|| 1.4| .1| .00| |pt 8| 84.5| 1.0| 0.0| 7140.2| 0.0|| 1.1| .1| .02| |pt 9| 94.5| 1.0| 0.0| 8930.2| 0.0|| 1.0| -.0| .00| |----|-----|----|----------------------||----|-----|-------| |sum |490.5|19.5| 6.0|32732.2|220.9||19.5| .0| .24| ------------------------------------------------------------ 490.5 M + 9 B = 6.0266356 32732.25 M + 490.5 B = 220.92804 -240590 M - 4414.5 B = -2956.064 294590 M + 4414.5 B = 1988.3524 54000 M + 0 B = -967.7123 M= -.0179206 B= 1.6462988 B E S T F I T E Q U A T I O N P (x) = 5.19 e ^ (-0.0179 x) The objection to an exponential fit still exsists, but is not quite as strong. The exponential fit only breaks down at skill levels of 100 or greater where the predicted value drops below 1. How significant this objection is depends on whether player characters can go above 100 in skill rank. The quality of fit is about the same as the linear with the sum of the difference between experimental and predicted values zero, and the squared difference 0.24. Using the same approach for skill rank increases on the 1-7 scale a exponential result arrived at is: P (x) = 6.93 e ^ (-0.0184 x) The quality of fit here is poor. While the difference is only 0.1 and the squared difference 2.00. Again, using the same approach for 1-10 skill rank increases, the result arrived at is: P (x) = 10.56 e ^ (-0.0194 x) The quality of fit here is better with the difference 0.0 and the squared difference 0.22. In all cases the quality of the linear fit is better than that of the exponential fit. The only thing the exponential has going for it is better behavior at higher skill rank values, and this is the very place where the information is most sketchy. After looking over the data the most likely possibility is that the result is a non-continuous linear function. For example, linear as described above between 10 and 89, and above 89 the result is always 1. Also, it must be pointed out that the predicted result is only the mean skill rank increase with the actual value for each skill rank increase some non-continuous distribution function around this mean value. It is possible that the distribution function is just a simple Gaussian distribution which then rounds all values outside the allowable range to the extreme value, either low or high. PostScript graphs of these plots and the IDL programs which generate them are available upon request. Looking for Statistical Trends in Data by Brian Mason The past few articles, on character development, army and troop training, and establishing equations for character development have led me to look into other data for similar situations where it might be possible to predict development of various parameters more accurately. Specifically, I decided to look at increases in morale rank for no activity and increases in training rank through army and troop training. It must be pointed out, however, that I consider all this information preliminary and the numbers not statistically significant to go through a more comprehensive leasst-squares analysis like the previous article. In looking for other possible trends, previous turn reports were inspected to see for any possible correlations between the amount of points a troop gained in training compared with the commanders skill rank and with the training rank of the unit on the previous turn. For troop training the numbers were insufficient to look for any possible trends. The results are below. Troop Training based on Commander Skill Rank Skill Rank Number Mean St. Dev. ============================================ 10-19 2 5.0 0.0 20-29 1 2.0 0.0 30-39 0 --- --- 40-49 4 3.5 0.5 50-59 2 4.5 0.5 60-69 0 --- --- 70-79 0 --- --- 80-89 0 --- --- 90-99 0 --- --- Troop Training based on Previous Training Rank Skill Rank Number Mean St. Dev. ============================================ 10-19 4 3.2 0.8 20-29 1 3.0 0.0 30-39 1 5.0 0.0 40-49 0 --- --- 50-59 0 --- --- 60-69 1 5.0 0.0 70-79 2 4.5 0.5 80-89 0 --- --- 90-99 0 --- --- For army training the results were somewhat more interesting. If we first consider the results based on the commander skill rank, there are no results from 10-19 and above 69. Also, the numbers at 20-29 and 60-69 cannot be considered as significant as the sample is not large enough. However, the results from 30-59 are compelling. They would seem to indicate that the higher the commander rank, the more the troop type will gain in training points. They might also indicate that my selection of three points as an average training increase is optimistic. Army Training based on Commander Skill Rank Skill Rank Number Mean St. Dev. ============================================ 10-19 0 --- --- 20-29 1 2.0 0.0 30-39 29 1.4 0.5 40-49 17 2.0 0.7 50-59 16 2.2 0.9 60-69 1 4.0 0.0 70-79 0 --- --- 80-89 0 --- --- 90-99 0 --- --- The results for army training would seem to indicate that the previous skill rank of the troop does not correlate with increase in skill rank, although it could be that the sample outside the 30-39 range is too small to spot any trends. Army Training based on Previous Skill Rank Skill Rank Number Mean St. Dev. ============================================ 10-19 4 1.3 0.4 20-29 0 --- --- 30-39 45 1.8 0.7 40-49 15 2.1 1.0 50-59 3 1.7 0.5 60-69 0 --- --- 70-79 0 --- --- 80-89 0 --- --- 90-99 0 --- --- The results for morale increase based on commander rank might indicate a correlation between morale increase and commander rank, however, the total variation seen is less than half any standard deviation. Clearly, more data is needed to verify this preliminary conclusion. Morale based on Commander Skill Rank Skill Rank Number Mean St. Dev. ============================================ 10-19 0 --- --- 20-29 0 --- --- 30-39 24 2.0 0.8 40-49 27 2.1 0.8 50-59 26 2.3 0.7 60-69 12 2.3 0.7 70-79 0 --- --- 80-89 0 --- --- 90-99 0 --- --- There does not appear to be any correlation between morale increase and previous morale rank, though, again, more data might help bear this out. Morale based on Previous Morale Rank Skill Rank Number Mean St. Dev. ============================================ 10-19 0 --- --- 20-29 0 --- --- 30-39 9 2.3 0.7 40-49 54 2.2 0.8 50-59 18 2.2 0.8 60-69 8 2.1 0.8 70-79 0 --- --- 80-89 0 --- --- 90-99 0 --- --- Tactics and Strategy: Cardolan by Brian Mason Hard lessons have been learned. In game 62 the editor of "The Mouth" as the Witch-King positively drubbed my Cardolan (Editor's Note: Brian fails to mention that even though Arthedain dropped on turn 7 and both Rhudaur and Dunland went evil, he still managed to hold all of us off for about 24 or 25 turns - hardly what I'd call a 'drubbing'). The experience in that game has led me to develop what follows as a starting strategy for Cardolan. I will start in a similar manner as my previous "Woodmen" article, but will fall then into a more specific turn-by-turn description. I will make specific moves for characters and (at least, to myself) count economics to the last piece of gold. While these will not necessarily be the same in every game, they certainly would have been true for one game. How does the Cardolan compare to other nations? At the start of the game they rank as follows (Allegiance Comparison Tables, Tom Walton): among all players among FP Total Tax Base 7th 4th Resource Base tied for 12th 7th Combat Strength tied for 19th 8th Character points tied for 23rd 10th Artifacts tied for 20th tied for 8th Cardolan is weak in very many areas. But the strength of the economy, its somewhat isolated location, and its ability to hire armies can make up for many mistakes. Probably the most important capability of Cardolan is to hire armies at no cost. Without the split command orders, new Cardolan armies can be hired on the spot free of charge. Only Rhudaur and the Fire King share this ability. But the Fire King does not have the population centers Cardolan does and Rhudaur must spend a turn by first hiring the army as Men-at-Arms before it can begin recruiting better quality troops. The strategy is as follows: Pre-existing conditions Characters: Aethelan is at 1317. Earnil is at 1614 with 900 men-at-arms. Echorion is at 1514. Finduilas III is at 1513. Hallas is at 1510. Imlach is at 1219 with 300 heavy infantry and 600 men- at-arms. Lanaigh is at 1510 with 600 heavy cavalry, 300 light cavalry, 300 heavy infantry, 300 light infantry, and 600 men-at- arms. Pelendur is at 1113 with 300 heavy infantry, 300 archers, and 600 men-at-arms. Specific sales will be made. There will, no doubt, be errors in the sale values from game to game, however, the results do give a flavor for what can be done. Buy and sell amounts and prices will be based on game 62 values. Opening Strategy Turn one moves: Aethelan hires an army of 300 heavy infantry and moves the army northeast to 1513. Earnil recruits 400 heavy infantry and moves his army to 1513. Echorion influences the population center and hires an army of 300 heavy infantry. Finduilas sells all leather and prentices magery. Hallas guard Lanaigh and moves to 1513. Imlach conducts troop maneuvers and moves the navy to 1614. Lanaigh recruits 300 heavy infantry and does a recon. Pelendur recruits 300 heavy infantry and moves the army to 1513. Turn two moves: Aethelan transfers all his troops and names a character of emissary rank 30. Earnil names a commander and moves his army to 1710. Echorion recruits 300 heavy infantry and moves his army to 1710. Finduilas sells all food and prentices magery. Hallas changes the tax rate to 70% and moves to 1614. Imlach recruits 400 heavy infantry and moves his army to 1710. Lanaigh recruits 300 heavy infantry and moves his army to 1710. Pelendur recruits 400 heavy infantry and moves his army to 1710. Turn three moves: Aethelan sells all food and moves and joins Earnil's army at 1806. Earnil conducts army maneuvers and moves his army to 1806. Echorion transfers command to Earnil and moves to 1317. The new commander hires an army of 400 heavy infantry and sells all mounts. Finduilas researches a spell and prentices magery. Hallas hires an army of 400 heavy infantry and guards 1614. Imlach transfers command to Earnil and moves to 1113. Lanaigh transfers command to Earnil and moves to 1514. Pelendur transfers command to Earnil and moves to 1510. The new emissary names another emissary and moves to 1609. Future turns: At this point, Cardolan is in a very precarious financial situation. While it has a large per turn deficit, it also has a large gold reserve of around 60000. However, continuing rotating sales of the four commodities it produces the most of: food, leather, mounts, and timber, should keep it in the black. It is currently poised to become the strongest military force West of the Misty Mountains. Earnil has an army of 7800 troops ready to strike at Angmar. Commanders are sitting at population centers, all within one-turns march of 1513, capable of recruiting 2000 troops per turn. It also has two new emissaries, and is poised, on turn four, to make a third. If I were playing Cardolan I would move Earnil's army towards Cargash hoping to meet armies which it could destroy and destroy any population center it comes across, recruit at all available population centers, and create an emissary. Cardolan can build up armies faster than any other nation, and in a prolonged war of attrition, it will come out on top. So, contrary to conventional wisdom, I would go after the Witch-King's armies, hoping to wear him out. Another important option which Cardolan should use would be to encourage significant early cooperation with the Noldo. Specifically, give the Noldo all the Cardolan ships (which at the end of turn one will be at 1614). This will give the Noldo a heightened naval power and will concentrate all the far northwest naval forces in one group so that they may form an effective fighting and naval operations force. Also, this will save Cardolan 1200 gold per turn. In addition to this the Noldo should be encouraged to sabotage all Cardolan harbors and ports. This will allow Noldo agents to improve faster, heighten (to a small degree) Cardolan security, and save Cardolan a further 1250 gold per turn. This is an extremely aggressive strategy, and one which demands constant attention to finances. Cardolan's production should be used to generate more income to keep the armies growing. After two turns recruiting, the "in Cardolan" forces will total almost 5000 while Earnil's army will either be very small or destroyed. I would combine these 5000 troops together and start the process all over again.